Pylimitics

I’ve always had the feeling that the conventional wisdom on politics and the economy is that Republicans are “better” at managing and growing the economy than are Democrats. The actual data says something quite different:

“Since World War II, the United States economy has performed significantly better on average under the administration of Democratic presidents than Republican presidents. The reasons for this are debated, and the observation applies to economic variables including job creation, GDP growth, stock market returns, personal income growth, and corporate profits. The unemployment rate has risen on average under Republican presidents, while it has fallen on average under Democratic presidents. Budget deficits relative to the size of the economy were lower on average for Democratic presidents. Ten of the eleven U.S. recessions between 1953 and 2020 began under Republican presidents. Of these, the most statistically significant differences are in real GDP growth, unemployment rate change, stock market annual return, and job creation rate.”

You can see more details here, along with all the citations for the source information. I added the emphasis myself. Here’s a sample; Democratic administrations have created more jobs than Republicans for nearly the past century:

The reason I emphasized recessions is that there are a lot of signs pointing to a major recession (at least) in the next four years. I’m talking about major price inflation, significant job losses and rising unemployment, and drops, possibly very sharp, in personal income. There’s a bit of time to prepare, but only a matter of months. Maybe as little as three months, and it’s difficult to put much into place that fast, whether in your personal life or at a local or state level. 

Another warning signal is the apparent drive to make sure no members of Trump’s cabinet are experts. Junior has appointed himself a sort of one-man vetting committee, and has vowed that no cabinet member should “think they know better” than Trump Sr. Now, if that’s the approach Trump took to his business, it explains something about how he ran it into bankruptcy not once, not twice, but six times. Effective leaders hire experts in their areas and expect their advice and counsel. So if nobody in the cabinet — say, the treasury secretary — understands the details of economic management better than Trump, Sr., it’s a warning signal because economic mistakes and misconceptions at the national level, in the world’s biggest economy, can be disastrous. Trump doesn’t seem to understand that tariffs result in higher prices, which are inflationary. That suggests that he himself doesn’t understand the details of economic management. 

Neither presidential campaign ever went into much detail about their economic policies and programs, but we can use Trump’s first term as a guide, and that raises even more warning signals. He’ll probably give tax breaks to the wealthiest and to offset the losses to the treasury, probably raise taxes on everybody else. That’s what he did before. And that’s another way to crash the economy. 

Then there’s Elon Musk, who is evidently going to play some role in the administration by making the government “more efficient.” When somebody pointed out (on Musk’s messaging system X) that the ideas Musk and Trump had mentioned would lead to “severe overreaction in the economy” and lead markets to “tumble,” Musk replied “sounds about right.” 

So get ready. The tips everybody offers seem to be consistent; owe as little as possible, save as much as possible, and be careful about expenses. This is a typical list, which seems like a good one. Of course, if they go too far and the crash is so severe we’re back in 1929, there’s not much that can be done by anybody. If you’re a billionaire, of course, you don’t have that much to worry about. I’ve just been mentioning a few people in that category.