“A rational astrology is a set of beliefs which one rationally behaves as if were true, regardless of whether they are in fact. Rational astrologies need not be entirely fake or false…. Some rational astrologies may turn out to be largely true, and that happy coincidence can be a great blessing. But they are still rational astrologies to the degree the factors that persuade us to behave as though the beliefs are true are not closely related to the fact of their truth.“
-Randy Steve Waldman
Bruce Schneier explains that Waldman’s examples include buying the same tech that everyone else is buying (“nobody ever got fired for buying IBM or Microsoft“), hiring people with degrees from elite colleges, and choosing the same medical treatments as everyone else, even when they’re only marginally effective (dietary supplements, anyone?) These are all “rational” in a way because in some circumstances, like corporations and social organizations, the conventional wisdom is a means of inclusion and getting rewarded, which may be a bigger goal than optimizing the actual outcome.
